Threat Posed to Lesser Antilles, Bahamas, Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Southeastern United States including Florida

Quiet Atlantic Awakens

After weeks of tranquility, the Atlantic hurricane season is potentially about to reignite. A tropical disturbance near the Lesser Antilles, the island chain wedged between the eastern Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea, might develop into a tropical storm towards the end of this week. Hurricane experts predict possible threats to the Bahamas, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and the southeastern United States, including Florida, within the next week.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) estimates that the weather system has a 50% chance of turning into a tropical storm. If it does reach storm intensity, it will be named “Debby,” next in line on 2024’s list of Atlantic storms.

The System of Concern

As of Monday, the system was approximately 700-800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and was gradually moving westward. Satellite imagery reveals a disarrayed and patchy system. Strong upper-level winds to the north have impeded the system and dry air at high altitudes has wrapped into the disturbance, hindering its structure and potential for thunderstorm development.

Over the next few days, these hostile winds and embedded pockets of dry air are likely to continue keeping the system at bay. However, by Thursday or Friday as the system navigates through the Bahamas or near the Dominican Republic and Haiti, favorable conditions may arise. High-altitude winds may calm down sufficiently to allow for some strengthening.

Storm Path Forecasts

The heart of the system’s path predictions is the Bermuda high, a large semi-stationary high-pressure system dwelling over the central Atlantic. The Bermuda high’s clockwise steering currents will propel the system westward and eventually northward. However, making a precise prediction about when and where this northward turn occurs is currently challenging.

It is important for residents of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, the Bahamas, Florida, and the Carolinas to monitor the developments of this system closely. Simultaneously, the Atlantic is expected to become much busier in mid-August as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, a weather cycling pattern, will foster the propagation of rising air over the tropical Atlantic.

Conclusion

Atlantic hurricane season experts are paying close attention to the brewing storm and will continue to provide constant monitoring and updates. With an anticipated extremely active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, everyone is advised to follow the developments on this potential storm and heed any necessary precautions.