Poll: Elissa Slotkin Leads Mike Rogers in US Senate Race

Free Press Poll Shows a Tight Race

The latest Free Press poll reveals that U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, the Democratic candidate set to replace the retiring U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow, maintains her edge ahead of her opposite Republican nominee, the former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers of Brighton. As per the data released on Friday morning, Slotkin, D-Holly, leads by 4 points at 46% to Rogers’ 42% with 12% still undecided.

Given the survey’s margin of error, which sits at +/-4 percentage points, it’s clear that Slotkin, a former intelligence officer and acting assistant Defense Department secretary, remains popular among voters outside of her party base. Her consistent victories in previously Republican-leaning districts, which were won by former President Donald Trump in his prior presidential elections, may be a significant contributing factor.

Slotkin Gaining Slight Edge

The poll, administered by EPIC-MRA of Lansing, surveyed 600 randomly chosen Michiganders for the Free Press and its media partners over several days. The survey showed a negligible 1-point lead by Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris in his reelection bid, keeping them at 46% to 45%, respectively.

When compared to the previous Free Press poll from July, it seems Slotkin and Rogers have both seen an improvement in their support. Back in July, Slotkin was at 43% vs Rogers’ 40% with 17% not committed to a candidate. However, the recent data suggests that Slotkin has been more successful in campaigning state-wide and introducing herself to voters.

Slotkin’s Favorability Surges; Rogers Falters

The shift in dynamics became more apparent post the retirement of President Joe Biden, with Kamala Harris assuming the Democratic nomination. Comparatively, Slotskin has a favorable rating from 34% of respondents, compared to a 23% unfavorable rating. This is much higher compared to Rogers, who enjoys a measly 17% favorable rating against a 24% unfavorable one.

Both candidates have leveraged their recent speaking roles at their respective party conventions and have been trying for months — even before securing their nominations — to define each other as the unfavorable choice. Rogers and his allies have pointed out Slotkin’s allegedly questionable moderacy, while Slotkin and her backers have countered with accusations of questionable connections with the pharmaceutical industry targeted towards Roger and his spouse.

Decisive Factors

Slotkin has shown considerable strength among women (52% to Rogers’ 38%) and self-described independents (50% to Rogers’ 26%) – two demographics that could well be crucial in deciding the result of this race. Rogers, on the other hand, appears to have a strong lead among white voters and male voters, but his support is significantly lower than that obtained by Trump.

With a whopping 24% of self-described independents still unsure, there is plenty of room for either candidate to pull ahead in the race. With time running out, both candidates will be keen on wooing these voters. As the game heats up, all eyes will remain on Michigan as the Senate race continues to evolve.