Gilbert: Marquette poll shows striking changes in Wisconsin battleground race

Enthusiasm of Democratic voters has soared after Vice President Kamala Harris’ emergence

Amid a summer marked by sudden political twists and turns, the battle for Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes seems to have returned to its state six weeks ago – a virtual tie, according to a new statewide poll conducted by the Marquette Law School. However, beneath the surface, certain notable changes have appeared.

The most significant shift involves the surging enthusiasm of Democratic voters following President Biden’s withdrawal from the race and Vice President Kamala Harris’ rise as the party’s new candidate against Republican, former President Donald Trump. The Democrats who were consistently disheartened about the 2024 election during Biden’s presumptive candidacy have been replaced by an upbeat, motivated base.

The Shift in Enthusiasm

In multiple surveys dating back to the previous fall, barely 40% of Wisconsin’s Democrats identified themselves as ‘very enthusiastic’ about voting for a president in this election, compared to a nearly 60% of Republicans. Historic Marquette polling data had never previously recorded such a significant enthusiasm gap between the parties, neither in 2014, 2018, 2020, nor 2022.

This conspicuous lack of Democratic enthusiasm sunk to near-depression levels following Biden’s underwhelming display in the June presidential debate. However, the new poll consisting of 877 registered voters taken from July 24 to August 1 paints a different picture. Democratic enthusiasm has witnessed a dramatic 20 point surge, and the once prominent enthusiasm gap has almost vanished. Now, 62% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents express great enthusiasm towards voting, remarkably close to 64% of Republicans and Republican ‘leaners’.

Implications for the Upcoming Election

Reflecting on the potential implications for the election, these changes do not hint at an obvious victor. The poll portrays a 50/50 split, roughly mirroring the state of affairs in June, April, and the previous fall, when the prior Marquette polls in Wisconsin were conducted.

Numerous transformative events have shaken the race since the previous poll: President Biden’s disastrous debate performance; the attempted assassination of Trump; the GOP convention in Milwaukee; a growing debate among Democrats over Biden’s viability as a candidate; and, ultimately, Biden’s withdrawal from the race. These significant events could have caused shifts in the state’s political landscape.

The disappearance of the marked enthusiasm gap could equalize the parties regarding voter turnout this fall. Trump’s 20-point lead among the most enthusiastic voters over Biden in previous polls has been reduced to a mere 5 points in the latest poll, benefitting Harris.

A Shift in Voter Sentiment

Another notable change indicated by the poll relates to the decline in ‘double-haters’. These voters express their dislike for both major candidates, forming a critical and unpredictable segment of the electorate. From 17% of all voters in June, their numbers dropped to 11% in the new poll.

Harris as the New Democratic Nominee

As Biden steps back and Harris steps forward, the poll also suggests that Harris begins her campaign free of some of Biden’s baggage. For instance, only 12% feel that the 59-year-old Harris is ‘too old’, compared to 76% for the 81-year-old Biden (and 59% for the 78-year-old Trump). This poll paints a picture of a familiar 50/50 battleground, but with a distinctively different battle, as a new Democratic candidate emerges and takes center stage.